With just under two weeks until the election, former President Donald Trump is performing significantly better in national and battleground state polls than he did in either 2016 or 2020.
According to RealClearPolitics’ national polling average released on Oct. 22, Trump is trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by less than a point. On the same date in 2020, Trump was behind President Joe Biden by 7.9 points, and in 2016, he trailed Hillary Clinton by 6.1 points.
Now in his third presidential bid, Trump lost the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020. However, the latest polling averages on Oct. 22 show Trump leading the Democratic candidate in all seven key battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—that could determine the Electoral College outcome. His performance is stronger in each of these states than in his previous campaigns.
U.S. pollsters believe this might indicate improved accuracy in capturing current voter sentiments compared to past elections. They also noted that these polling trends suggest a close contest between Trump and Harris, possibly with an advantage for Trump as Election Day nears.
Don Levy, from the Siena College Research Institute, described the race as “dramatically even” compared to the previous two elections. David Paleologos from the Suffolk University Political Research Center stated that Trump appears more viable now than in his past campaigns, while Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports believes Trump is set to win the national popular vote.
Methodology Advancements
In both previous races, Trump outperformed poll forecasts in battleground states, surpassing projections by about 5.8 percentage points in 2016 and by 3.2 points in 2020. Although the 2020 polls were closer to the final results, major polling organizations, including Siena, made adjustments to address gaps from past elections.
These polling adjustments included better representation of demographics likely to support Trump, recognizing divides between those with and without college degrees and between urban and rural voters. Pollsters also identified response biases related to who was more likely to complete surveys, particularly during the pandemic, and adjusted their methods in 2024 to capture a broader range of responses.
According to Levy, improved methodologies and quotas have minimized variance in polling results this election cycle, suggesting that pollsters may be more accurately reflecting voter trends.
Confidence in Polling
Trump’s 2016 win led many to question polling accuracy, but Paleologos maintains that Americans can generally trust well-established polling organizations with strong track records. However, he also noted that in 2024, many polls are produced by organizations with varying levels of quality, meaning not all polls are as reliable as those from long-standing institutions.
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